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2024-12-13 04:54:10

CICC: The non-agricultural data in November supported the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. The CICC research report pointed out that after being seriously hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the United States rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. On the whole, the labor market is still in a state of "the momentum of employment growth is weakening, but the job market itself is not weak", which will provide reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December. However, we also predict that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, because as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers will become more cautious. One prediction risk is the impact of Trump's immigration policy on the labor market. At present, we tend to have a moderate impact, but we also need to pay close attention to the possibility of extreme situations. Based on non-agricultural data, we believe that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again this month.Huatai Securities: The statement of the Politburo meeting on macro-policies generally exceeded market expectations. Huatai Securities said in reading the research report of the Politburo meeting in December that, on the whole, the statement of the Politburo meeting on macro-policies generally exceeded market expectations, and the stocks and debts all gave positive responses. The subsequent central bank RRR cut is expected to land soon, which is expected to form a certain emotional resonance. The next focus is on the more specific economic deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference for next year. Compared with the expected guidance, the market pays more attention to the actual scale, especially whether there are clearer signals in finance, inflation and exchange rate, and whether the broad credit can actually come. As far as debt is concerned, the short-term market inertia is still there, and the downward trend of interest rates has not wavered. However, the market quickly responded to the mid-term "good" and overdrawn the market next year. It is suggested to enhance operational flexibility, maintain long-term interest rate positions, stop chasing up, cash in when it is favorable to prevent profit impulse, and continue to seize opportunities such as credit bonds for 3-5 years.25 shares were rated by brokers, and Ziguang Guowei's target rose by 48.59%. On December 9, a total of 25 stocks were rated by brokers, and 5 of them announced their target prices. According to the highest target price, Ziguang Guowei, Shaanxi Coal Industry and Zhongju High-tech are among the top gainers, with gains of 48.59%, 39.54% and 33.95% respectively. Judging from the direction of rating adjustment, the ratings of 18 stocks remain unchanged and 7 stocks are rated for the first time. In addition, two stocks have attracted the attention of many brokers, among which Zhongju Hi-tech and Shaanxi Coal were ranked in the top number, with three and two brokers giving ratings respectively. Judging from the Wind industry to which the buy-rated stocks belong, the number of buy-rated stocks in technical hardware and equipment, semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment, food, beverage and tobacco is the largest, with 6, 4 and 4 respectively.


In October, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, and the trend of steady improvement continued to consolidate. The General Administration of Market Supervision announced today (10th) that in October, 2024, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, up 0.47 points from September, and the steady improvement of corporate credit level continued to consolidate.Many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea. "Is it safe to travel to South Korea?" On the 9th, travelnoire, a platform focusing on African tourists, raised such a question. According to the report, the recent political events in South Korea have cast a shadow over this popular tourist destination. In fact, as the emergency martial law storm in South Korea continues to ferment, many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea. South Korea's "Asian Economy" reported on the 9th that the political and social uncertainty in South Korea has further intensified, and the inbound tourism market in South Korea, which has just resumed after the epidemic, is once again facing severe challenges. South Korea's New Zealand News Agency reported that due to the increasing political uncertainty in South Korea, many countries have issued travel warnings to South Korea.CITIC Securities: The main line of the anti-monopoly investigation on domestic chips in NVIDIA is clear. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, on December 9, 2024, the General Administration of Market Supervision launched an investigation on NVIDIA Company in accordance with the law, which is a legal management means to regulate and maintain fair market competition order, and has a leading role in the domestic chip industry, and is expected to boost domestic computing power and market sentiment of chips in a short time. In combination with the increasing emphasis on self-control by relevant domestic departments and industry associations, we expect that the overall localization pace of domestic semiconductor industry is expected to be further accelerated, and the manufacturing link is also expected to benefit.


South Korean opposition leader Li Zaiming said that the budget will be dealt with today.Ping An Securities: In 2025, the A-share market will have more flexibility in the slow-release growth style of key pricing risks. Ping An Securities Research Report pointed out that in 2025, the A-share market will have more flexibility in the slow-release growth style of key pricing risks. Specifically, structural investment opportunities are increasing. 1) scientific and technological innovation, that is, technology industries that benefit from the support of domestic new quality productivity policies and can cope with overseas risks, including TMT and artificial intelligence; 2) Manufacturing growth, that is, advanced manufacturing sectors with global competitiveness and expected marginal improvement in industrial structure, including power equipment (photovoltaic, lithium battery, etc.), new energy vehicles, national defense and military industry, etc.; 3) domestic demand consumption, that is, the consumption sector that is expected to be repaired by fundamentals under the support of domestic demand policy, and pay attention to some real estate infrastructure chains that are reversed; 4) Commodity price increase, paying attention to ferrous metals that benefit from the stabilization of real estate, and other commodity price increase sectors with potential disturbances on the supply side.South Korea said that the recent increase in financial and foreign exchange market volatility will actively respond to reverse market sentiment. The South Korean government said in a joint statement that the recent increase in financial and foreign exchange market volatility is somewhat excessive considering the fundamentals of South Korea's economic stability and the stability of the external environment. The government and the Bank of Korea are capable of coping with the market and will actively respond to reverse market sentiment. Pay close attention to market trends and will use all measures to stabilize the market. South Korean Finance Minister Choe Sang-mu, Central Bank Governor Lee Chang-yong and financial regulators meet every day to evaluate the financial market.

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